Forum:2011-12 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season/Funso
08R.FUNSO 95S.INVEST Another one.. this time in the Mozambique Channel. —''12R.KIEWII'' 08:14, January 17, 2012 (UTC) This is really taking its time developing Allanjeffs 20:26, January 18, 2012 (UTC) I don't expect to see very much out of this disturbance. It may become our next system, but it won't be very strong if it does so. Ryan1000 23:38, January 18, 2012 (UTC) Excuse me? GFS getting this down to 960 mb. —''12R.KIEWII'' 23:47, January 18, 2012 (UTC) :::I've never seen the GFS so happy about a system before. Yqt1001 23:54, January 18, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Disturbance 08 Its coming... expected to become a TC. —''12R.KIEWII'' 01:20, January 19, 2012 (UTC) Man...these disturbances are coming in fast. We could be looking at our "E" and "F" storms soon. Andrew444TalkBlogContributions 02:14, January 19, 2012 (UTC) Oh God by my part I have never seen so active this ocean before Looks like Funso is coming nearly at the same time that Ethel and the two look like they are going to become something big Allanjeffs 04:02, January 19, 2012 (UTC) The activity seems to be picking up, but 07R should (hopefully) spin only fish and this storm, as I said above, probrably won't be as fierce as 07R(Ethel) will be. There is a chance we could see a cat 1 or 2 from this, which could be a problem for Madagascar or Mozambique, but i'd put the chances of this thing passing category 3 strength at around 0%. It's much less organized than 07R and the conditions aren't prime for this one to bomb out. It will intensify to some degree though, and this storm certainly bears watching, especially since, unlike 07R, it will be a threat to land. Ryan1000 04:29, January 19, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression 08 Expected to strengthen into an ITC. —''12R.KIEWII'' 07:53, January 19, 2012 (UTC) Moderate Tropical Storm Funso Heating up....--Cy10 13:08, January 19, 2012 (UTC) :As I said, it likely won't get super strong. Funso is only forecast to peak at 85 mph before making landfall in Mozambique, but because Mozambique has a very fragile economy and is very vulnerable to flooding and mudslides, it really doesn't matter. This storm could still be a problem for them. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 15:10, January 19, 2012 (UTC) ::Maybe but there is always a small possibillity that is could strength more than expect it we have see examples of it Allanjeffs 18:00, January 19, 2012 (UTC) :::It will more than likely become a category 1 cyclone, and I'd place the peak strength of this one at about 100-110 mph, with an outside chance at cat. 3, but I highly doubt Funso will become a strong cat 3, cat 4 or cat 5. Ethel hasn't strengthened as fast as I thought she would... But as I said, Mozambique isn't the best place for a landfalling tropical cyclone anyways, so it really doesn't matter how strong Funso gets, it will cause signifigant flooding and mudslides no matter what happens. This unfortunately could be a pretty deadly storm for the folks over there. Ryan1000 18:14, January 19, 2012 (UTC) ::::Funso is now doing something (whether it be EI or RI, I'm uncertain). 4 hours ago, 3 hours ago (when I claim the RI/EI started) and finally, right now. Yqt1001 21:22, January 19, 2012 (UTC) ::::I knew Funso would strength rapidly it even look better than Ethel that was supposedly to be a cat 2 by now but we will see if Funso can continue strengthening I say peak at cat 3 or 4 Allanjeffs 23:03, January 19, 2012 (UTC) ::::I'm not a fan of deadly or destructive storms...let's hope this one doesn't cause too much trouble. Andrew444TalkBlogContributions 23:45, January 19, 2012 (UTC) :::::Hm. Looks like Funso will become much stronger now, possibly to category 2-4, but the good news is Funso is now forecast to go straight down the Mozambique Channel in between Madagascar and Mozambique and not signifigantly affect land. It was expected to stay weak and make landfall, but now it looks like Funso will stay strong and miss most land. Win-Win scenario here! Ryan1000 00:12, January 20, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Funso Deepened significantly, now 5 mb away from beating Benilde. —''12R.KIEWII'' 00:50, January 20, 2012 (UTC) WHOA!!! I did NOT see this coming! Andrew444TalkBlogContributions 01:41, January 20, 2012 (UTC) Knew it that this system was potentially a major and ryan there is still a possibility that Funso actually makes landfall even if it didn`t it already have leave a lot of rain in those areas Allanjeffs 02:27, January 20, 2012 (UTC) Woah, this thing's taking off pretty fast. Now forecast to hit 135 mph. And Allan, hopefully Funso will turn southeast before it does make landfall in Mozambique, because this thing will be god knows how bad if it hits them as a category 3 cyclone. It is small, so it won't be very widespread, but it still will be bad if it hits them. It could make a straightforward inland landfall like Cyclone Japhet in 2003, or it could only clip Mozambique like Cyclone Jokwe in 2008. Either way, we want the best case scenario out of this one. The only thing that surprised me is that Funso is jumping ahead of Ethel intensity-wise. I was expecting Ethel to be a major by now, but now it looks like Funso could do that first, or instead. Ryan1000 04:39, January 20, 2012 (UTC) I am really hoping for the best case scenario if not there could be deaths and i don`t like that Allanjeffs 11:49, January 20, 2012 (UTC) On the SSHS, Funso is a C1. Andrew444TalkBlogContributions 12:57, January 20, 2012 (UTC) And expected to become a VITC.--Cy10 13:12, January 20, 2012 (UTC) :::Funso was close to MH status briefly last night. It had a clearing pinhole eye, and some very deep convection fully surrounding it. Now, it is a shadow of its former self..they eye filled in and the convection somewhat disorganized. I'm assuming that land is the culprit. Also I want to proudly say that my RI probability script correctly predicted that Funso would RI 18 hours in advance, and it gave Funso a higher percentage than Ethel. Yqt1001 13:18, January 20, 2012 (UTC) And another 15 people dead. —''12R.KIEWII'' 15:49, January 20, 2012 (UTC) This thing has already killed more people than every other storm combined this year!!! :O Andrew444TalkBlogContributions 16:55, January 20, 2012 (UTC) Funso has weakened down to 65 kts, but still expected to become a VITC. —''12R.KIEWII'' 18:55, January 20, 2012 (UTC) :It went through an EWRC last night, but has started strengthening again. Meteo France showing a disaster for Mozambique (category 5 strength at landfall).... Yqt1001 21:16, January 20, 2012 (UTC) ::I thought it was a landfall near SouthAfrica i knew all along that Funso was not a game it better not strength at that intensity or it is going to be hell for them Allanjeffs 22:36, January 20, 2012 (UTC) ::I just notice something that if Funso becomes a cat 5 like it is predict i will win for the strongest name storm in the south-west indian ocean but i don`t really want to win if there is going to be disaster in the area i really feel sorry for them Allanjeffs 23:15, January 20, 2012 (UTC) :::Funso is a pretty agressive cyclone right now, but the problem with this one IMO isn't how strong it gets, it's where it goes. This storm was forecast to move away from the coastilne, but instead of doing that, Funso is instead slowly staggering towards the Mozambique coastline(WSW at 4 mph) instead of turning away. Being a 105 mph storm, it's going to be severe either way, but now it's peak is expected to be cat. 3 instead of cat. 4. It doesn't really make a difference considering where it's going to make landfall, but the bad news is it doesn't want to turn away, and it was originally forecast to. The worst of the storm could strike Mozambique tomorrow instead of Sunday or Monday because of that. Ryan1000 23:30, January 20, 2012 (UTC) ::::JTWC and Meteo France are very different for Funso. JTWC has Funso stalled until tomorrow, and slowly speeds it up to the south, spins it up to category 3 strength and then crashes it into land on Monday as a category 2. Meteo France, however, has Funso moving slowly out to sea, getting up to a category 5 strength monster before making landfall in a week. I would trust Meteo France in this case more, as they probably know more about SWIO storms than the JTWC, and let's be honest, JTWC has a horrible track record for everything SHem. We'll see who is right though! Yqt1001 00:21, January 21, 2012 (UTC) :::::Neither could be right for all we know, the greatest thing we can expect from the tropics is the unexpected. I mean, if Funso continues on that slow westward direction until, say noon tomorrow, it will already be making landfall in Mozambique, and if it stays this strong by then, this could be a very severe storm for the folks around Quelimane or Marromeu. However, I would want to see Mozambique swallow this pill right now rather than leave this thing over open waters and hit southern Mozambique around Maputo(Mozambique's capital) as a monster category 2 or 3. It would still be bad if it hits them by today at noon (assuming it continues its WSW direction), but if it misses land and heads south to hit somewhere near Maputo as a category 2 or 3, it could even be deadlier than Eline in 2000, which killed as many as 1,000 people in Mozambique from catastrophic flooding. This storm is starting to get really scary, but if it makes landfall now, it would be much better than if it were to make landfall later(although it would still be bad). Ryan1000 00:40, January 21, 2012 (UTC) :::::Either of the two options are bad but like you say Ryan is preferable option 1 even though is still bad the best option is that Funso start weakening.Allanjeffs 03:28, January 21, 2012 (UTC) :::::I was going to ask if name in this basin were retire but i read that a new annual list is use every year Allanjeffs 03:30, January 21, 2012 (UTC) Funso is back! It has moved away from land, allowing it to strengthen rather quickly. It looks like it might be a major hurricane for the next update. Yqt1001 04:21, January 21, 2012 (UTC) Probable high-end cat 2 or major hurricane Funso is really becoming dangerous I think it has already kill 15 people.Allanjeffs 04:52, January 21, 2012 (UTC) :Funso is absolutely beautiful right now. It is really, a perfect looking cyclone. Yqt1001 05:52, January 21, 2012 (UTC) Intense Tropical Cyclone Funso Still strengthening, but no longer expected to become a VITC. —''12R.KIEWII'' 08:29, January 21, 2012 (UTC) This thing is trying it's hardest to take option 1 that I said above... It's still moving NW, but only at 1 mile an hour. It may stall out here if it can't reach the coastline, but the folks in Mozambique are currently feeling Funso's outer rainbands to rough thunderstorms and wave action right now, though the strongest part of the storm is yet to come. And yes Allan, a new naming list is drawn up every year here, like with the NIO(though they're much less active), so Funso can't be "retired", but it won't be used again here anyways. The only way SWIO or NIO names can be used more than once is if it was used elsewhere worldwide, like Cyclone Ivan(SWIO) and Nisha(NIO) in 2008. Ryan1000 09:58, January 21, 2012 (UTC) It has start weakening again.Allanjeffs 14:23, January 21, 2012 (UTC) That's great it's weakening! Andrew444TalkBlogContributions 14:26, January 21, 2012 (UTC) Funso could make a landfall in Mozambique later today if it keeps up that northwest track, but it's better for this beast to make landfall now than make landfall as a monster later. The fact it's moving at only 1 mph means Funso will be dropping awfully heavy rains on Mozambique's coastline, so some bad effects are already being felt from this cyclone for the folks down there. Ryan1000 14:36, January 21, 2012 (UTC) :Funso has definitely weakened back to a TC because of land interaction and probably colder SSTs because he hasn't moved much in the last 24 hours. He was supposed to move out to sea starting last night, but he isn't doing that. Yqt1001 15:58, January 21, 2012 (UTC) ::This storm is really trying hard to make landfall in Mozambique. Per the latest sattelite imagery, Funso is just about to move ashore; it probrably will in the next 6-12 hours at this rate. I think he will be downgraded to a category 2 or 1 soon, but it's a better outcome than what it could have been. Ryan1000 17:21, January 21, 2012 (UTC) :::Whoa, Funso lost itself rescently. It's still nearing Mozambique, but it's powering down as it ever so slowly approaches the coastline. I don't know if Funso is even going to last long into Monday if this keeps up. It's starting to fall apart. Ryan1000 20:02, January 21, 2012 (UTC) ::::Aaaand it's finally moving southeast. This isn't good. Mozambique already took a beating from Funso's outer rainbands and now this storm could move out to sea and be much worse when it actually makes landfall. Ryan1000 23:20, January 21, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Funso (2nd time) Back down again... but still a chance of some restrengthening. —''12R.KIEWII'' 23:31, January 21, 2012 (UTC) :If it doesn't make landfall.--Cy10 23:56, January 21, 2012 (UTC) ::Probably will strength now that is moving away from the coast.Allanjeffs 00:46, January 22, 2012 (UTC) :::First paragraph of the Meteo France discussion: "Funso is going slowly away from the coast eastward and the interaction of the system with the land is lessening. Convection is restructuring above the center with a small central dense overcast and a small curved band that is wrapping all around the center. " Here goes the RI again. Yqt1001 01:13, January 22, 2012 (UTC) :::This storm do RI,then weakens then RI again and then start weakening again and then starting RI again this storm is a rollercoaster no other word could describe what Funso is doing and now that is moving away from land there is almost nothing that will stop this cyclone from strengthening.Allanjeffs 02:21, January 22, 2012 (UTC) ::::It won't be good when it comes ashore again. This storm may be heading out to sea now, but later it will turn back to hit southern Mozambique or even South Africa as a very formidable storm. Interaction with land weakened this storm a bit, but it will make a nasty comeback in the next week, and the worst is yet to come. There is still a chance it could remain at sea, but that's not something that can be guranteed as of now. Ryan1000 02:26, January 22, 2012 (UTC) :The main areas for landfall are Mozambique the most probable and the other one less probable is Madagascar i know it sounds bad but I think that Madagascar is more prepair for a landfall than Mozambique even though I really would want Funso to remain at sea and just to be a scare for us.Allanjeffs 03:26, January 22, 2012 (UTC) :There's no gurantee that this storm will make landfall yet, but it can't be ruled out either. I have a feeling it could approach Mozambique again and turn out to sea before making landfall like it's doing now. I don't know what happened along the coastline earlier today as Funso's outer rainbands battered Mozambique, but hopefully the effects weren't too serious. Ryan1000 03:48, January 22, 2012 (UTC) :The southern area of Mozambique hasn't seen anything (other than Dando) since Domoina in 1984. They should be prepared if this hits them. Andrew444TalkBlogContributions 13:38, January 22, 2012 (UTC) :At least now its not forecast to make landfall in Mozambique Allanjeffs 19:03, January 22, 2012 (UTC) :Funso again forecast to make landfall on southern Mozambique he already have kill people and if the landfall occured i am very sad to say it but the death toll is going to increase.Allanjeffs 12:48, January 23, 2012 (UTC) ::No he isn't - the official forecast shows it will stay well away from Mozambique. —''12R.KIEWII'' 12:51, January 23, 2012 (UTC) Intense Tropical Cyclone Funso (2nd time) Restrengthened again! Not gonna affect land. —''12R.KIEWII'' 19:24, January 23, 2012 (UTC) :Funso is amazing right now. Dvorak says category 4, but I think it could be a category 5 soon. It has the classic pinhole eye look. :) Yqt1001 20:03, January 23, 2012 (UTC) :Now that is not forecast to make landfall it should be beautiful and amazing to have this storm becoming our first cat 5 in the yearAllanjeffs 20:34, January 23, 2012 (UTC) ::Latest JTWC update out. 115kts, expected to reach the 140kts milestone in 24 hours! Still not expected to hit land. Yqt1001 21:17, January 23, 2012 (UTC) :::Looks like we got the best scenario out of this one. It could have made landfall up to twice in it's lifetime, but now it's going seaward. There is a chance it could become a category 5 cyclone, which would be the first SWIO cat 5 since 2010's Edzani and the only category 5 cyclone ever recorded in the Mozambique Channel. This thing looks pretty, but it's still lashing away at Mozambique and Madagascar with it's outer rainbands. Other than causing stormy weather for the folks there for over a week or so, Funso didn't cause too much trouble. It could have been much worse. Ryan1000 21:54, January 23, 2012 (UTC) :::Yeah until now it appear the best case scenario will happen with these storm even though it has already killed some folks in there.Allanjeffs 01:17, January 24, 2012 (UTC) Funso is still strengthening. Dvorak suggesting that Funso is at 130kts, and Madagascar just updated Funso at 110kts (10-min). Looks like we nearly have a confirmed VITC in our hands. It's pretty amazing right now, long time since we've had a storm like this! Yqt1001 02:52, January 24, 2012 (UTC) I really want to see this become a VITC (unless it's forecast to hit land, of course)!!! Andrew444TalkBlogContributions 03:10, January 24, 2012 (UTC) It's no longer forecast to reach C5, but it's very likely it will reach strong C4(150-155 mph). Either way, it should be moving slowly out to sea and dying away in about 3 or 4 days. Ryan1000 17:19, January 24, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Funso (3rd time) And down again.--Cy10-- 13:18, January 25, 2012 (UTC) :For less than one advisory likely, it just went through an EWRC, it already is at 140mph according to the JTWC. Not a category 2 hurricane in my mind. Yqt1001 13:26, January 25, 2012 (UTC) ::It might be time to start saying goodbye to Funso; it's eye is starting to expand now that it's heading southwards into colder waters and stable air. From here on out, it should slowly die away. Ryan1000 21:45, January 25, 2012 (UTC) Intense Tropical Cyclone Funso (3rd time) And up again.--Cy10-- 23:52, January 25, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Funso (4th time) And back down again. —''12R.KIEWII'' 01:04, January 26, 2012 (UTC) This thing keeps crossing between the TC/ITC boundary! Andrew444TalkBlogContributions 02:35, January 26, 2012 (UTC) It should be weakening soon.--Cy10-- 02:55, January 26, 2012 (UTC) We have to be saying goodbye to this one soon; it's starting to fall apart. BTW, Cyclone10, you were soooo close in the 2011 AHS betting pools. Rina's TCR is out now, only one day after Katia's was released. Upgraded to a major hurricane briefly too, so we ended with 19-7-4. Ryan1000 18:26, January 26, 2012 (UTC) Intense Tropical Cyclone Funso (4th time) And back up again.. —''12R.KIEWII'' 18:48, January 26, 2012 (UTC) Funso can't make up his mind, can he. :/ He'll be around for a few more days. Ryan1000 23:02, January 26, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Funso (5th time) And down again....--Cy10-- 13:09, January 27, 2012 (UTC) Ay ay ay, Funso, just do something already. You don't know when to give up, do you. Ryan1000 18:28, January 27, 2012 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Funso Finally down. —''12R.KIEWII'' 08:36, January 28, 2012 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Funso Finally out. —''12R.KIEWII'' 13:35, January 28, 2012 (UTC) Last advisory by JTWC.--Cy10-- 22:14, January 28, 2012 (UTC)